Vietnam’s Economic Growth in 2019 May Not Exceed 7 percent

Diep Nguyen

11:10 02/01/2019

BizLIVE -

Under the scenario of US China trade war, ANZ economists think that Vietnam can gain certain benefits from this confrontation, especially in export fields.

Vietnam’s Economic Growth in 2019 May Not Exceed 7 percent

Photo: Reuters

The latest report released by Vietcombank Securities predicted that Vietnam economy in 2019 will increase by 6.6 to 6.8 percent. 
In which, leading the growth will be big FDI companies with the busy import and export activities to support for the production. The service, production and processing industries show a lot of signs to become bright spots.
The 2019 inflation rate is expected to be in the range of 4-4.5 percent and is strongly affected by the production and consumption price fluctuations. There will be very little room for postponing the public service price increases, VCBS economists stressed. 
At the end of December, ABD showed the assertiveness with the risks from the US-China trade war. 
Chief Economist of ADB, Yasuyuki Sawada, remarked: “The truce in the US-China trade war is world welcoming but so far the confrontation has not been solved, this can be considered carrying the high risk for the regional economic prospects”.
World Banks economist however highly appreciate the Vietnam’s economy resistance against the external risks. However, moving in line with the world’s general trend, the Vietnam’s economic growth will be slower in 2019 and 2020.
Vietnam’s economy is predicted to growth 6.6 percent in 2019 and 6.5 percent in 2020.
ANZ economist forecast that Vietnam’s GDP will grow by 7 percent in 2019. Under the scenario of US China trade war, ANZ economists think that Vietnam can gain certain benefits from this confrontation, especially in export fields. 
The FDI into Vietnam show the tendency to move much higher in the past 6 months, especially in the construction and production and this is predicted to increase in the coming time. This factor will help Vietnam to achieve the economic growth targets in 2019. 
The National Center for Information and Economic and Social Prediction, unsurpringly, gave much higher predictions then other organizations. NCIF thinks that Vietnam’s economy can grow from 6.9 percent to 7.1 percent in the coming period. 
From NCIF assumptions, the Vietnam’s economy is supported by 4 factors including the private sector, the institutional improvements and business environment, scientific development and labor productivity enhancement. 

DIEP NGUYEN

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