A view of downtown Ho Chi Minh City. (Photo: www.silverlandhotels.com)
The Philippines and Vietnam will be less affected by China’s economic slowdown, Glenn Maguire, ANZ
chief economist for South Asia, Southeast Asia and Pacific, said in a note titled “South by Southeast: Economic Insight” seen by BizLIVE
Every one percentage point fall in China’s economic growth is likely to prompt less than a 0.5 percentage point in the Philippines and Vietnam, says the report, using a sensitivity index based on the past decade of data.
ANZ forecast that Vietnam’s economic growth would be 6.9% this year before slowing to 6.5% in 2017, citing vibrant exports, manufacturing and foreign investments. The country’s economy grew by higher-than-expected 6.68% in 2015.
Vietnam’s consumer price index (CPI) is projected to pick up to 2% this year and 2.7% in 2016 from a record low of 0.6% in 2015, local website Cafef.vn cited the bank as saying.
Overseas capital inflow into the financial market is poised to increase following the scrapping of the foreign ownership cap, it said.
According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, Vietnam’s gross domestic product is expected to expand 6.6% this year, the second fastest pace after India’s.