ICT equipment and apparel sectors will contribute half of Vietnam’s export growth from 2021 - 2030.
Vietnam’s export growth in the 2021-2030 period will be uplifted by (i) strong FDI inflows, which have helped Vietnam diversify its export base and gradually move into higher value sectors, (ii) the large, young, growing and increasingly skilled workforce, (iii) rapid trade liberalization, and (iv) improved macroeconomic fundamentals.
“The investment and services clauses in the TPP [Trans-Pacific Partnership] should provide impetus towards reform, most notably liberalizing some key protected sectors,” HSBC
said in its “Trade forecast” report.
ICT equipment, the biggest export sector for Vietnam, is forecast to contribute 19% of the total increase in exports from 2021 - 2030, up from 14% in 2015 - 2020. The impetus of the sector is due to expansions of transnational companies such as Samsung
Meanwhile, Vietnam is expected to continue to attract low cost manufacturing firms thanks to its growing low cost workforce and the progress towards the TPP agreement, maintaining its strong foothold in the market for textiles and garments. Clothing and apparel will contribute 19% from 2021 - 2030 while textiles and wood manufactures will account for 10%.
The U.S. will remain Vietnam's largest export market by 2030 while China will still be Vietnam's largest import partner in 2030.
The report added that Vietnam’s Trade Confidence Score rose notably compared to a year ago despite the more challenging global backdrop. Monthly data shows exports have risen strongly this year, close to 10% in the year to date while that has fallen in other major economies in the region.