In its latest ‘Vietnam at a glance’ report, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC
) has also raised its 2016 GDP to 6.7% from the previous 6.5%.
The bank predicted the State Bank of Vietnam would keep the OMO rate steady at 5.0% though H1 2016, as near-term price pressures remain limited with oil prices expected to stay subdued and the dong’s depreciation path confined by the peg. “However, with inflation expected to rebound gradually on the back of stronger growth, we now look for the central bank to deliver a 50bps hike in Q3 2016”.
Vietnam’s Q3 GDP growth accelerated to 6.8% year-on-year from 6.5% in Q2, partly driven by resilient export sector.
Vietnam’s September manufacturing PMI
slowed to 49.5 from 51.3 in August, reminding that Vietnam is not immune from the slowdown in the global trade cycle, the report says. “The sharp deterioration in the new export orders components suggests that a quick turnaround is unlikely. We expect export growth to slow towards year-end.”
The Asian Development Bank late last month raised economic growth forecasts for Vietnam to 6.5% for 2015 and to 6.6% for 2016, from the respective 6.1% and 6.2% previously.